- The year 2022 remains in the rear-view mirror. There was no shortage of buzz in the market last year: rising interest rates, an ongoing inflation shock, and, as a result, falling stock markets and a strengthening dollar.
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA – Media OutReach – 6 February 2023 – The year 2022 remains in the rear-view mirror. There was no shortage of buzz in the market last year: rising interest rates, an ongoing inflation shock, and, as a result, falling stock markets and a strengthening dollar. Just imagine, at the end of the year the S&P500 was headed down 18%.
If we speak about the stock market, we should not be critical, as the decrease in the value of assets was mixed and there are even positive moments:
- The Energy sector is a striking example; it added 52% for the year and is, in fact, the only sector in the green zone.
- Utilities and Consumer Staples have proven to be defensive equities (and practically unchanged).
- Healthcare fell less than the entire market (8% drop in total).
- Other cyclical sectors (Basic Materials, Industrials, Financials) have recovered over the past two months, resulting in a decline of about 10%.
- The Telecommunications, Technology, Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary sectors, which are sensitive to rising interest rates, remain deep in the negative zone.
We have taken all these trends into review and provided you with the most probable scenario of the situation. The following research aims to let our clients know the 2023 trends in the assets they trade (currency pairs and stocks).
We’ve highlighted two sets of information. In the first part we look at trends in the macroeconomics of countries and forecast the value of the U.S. dollar, and in the second part we share a vision about key industries that we think will perform in 2023.
As we said, this outlook will be of primary interest to our clients, because they can use all the asset types and market situations discussed to execute trades on their accounts.
United States & US Dollar.
We expect the U.S. recession to continue in the first half of 2023, then recover and rebound, gaining strength by the end of 2023:
- The business cycle will outpace the economic cycle. Market players will be more optimistic, setting the stage for public equities valuation growth. Nevertheless, the full-year targets for U.S. economic growth and inflation may reflect a mostly recessionary outlook—we forecast that the inflation shock of the last 18 months has stopped—core inflation will slow from 5% now to 3% at the end of 2023. The unemployment rate will rise from 3.5% to 4.0% by year-end.
- We believe that in order to contain inflation (on the background of stronger real income growth), the U.S. Fed will raise the rate three more times in 25 bps increments to a peak of 5–5.25%. We also do not expect a rate cut in 2023.
- Based on the above, the US dollar’s rise may slow and possibly reverse due to a slowdown in inflation and monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve starting in the second quarter (March–April) of 2023.
Global economies
US economic resilience is contrasted with a European recession and a boomy reopening in China. The energy supply shock resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war will contribute to weaker growth in the Eurozone. The situation in Asia-Pacific (APAC) mirrors that of China’s reopening and their rejection of zero tolerance Covid in China
