Kisan League welcomes the prime minister’s proposed rate for the 2027 crop and warns of shortages unless the state buys and stores wheat, a demand that runs up against Pakistan’s IMF-backed exit from procurement
LAHORE: The Markazi Kisan League has welcomed Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s proposal to set the 2027 wheat price at Rs4,500 per maund, but warned that the rate will mean little to farmers unless the government actually buys the crop and rebuilds state reserves.
“Fixing a reasonable price for wheat is a positive step in the interests of farmers, but its benefits will materialise only if the government actively purchases the crop,” said the league’s secretary general, Dr Rizwan Mahmood. He urged the federal government to implement the decision promptly and draw up a procurement plan with all provinces.
A Rs1,000 jump
The proposed price, announced by the Prime Minister’s Office on Thursday, is Rs1,000 higher than last year’s Rs3,500 per maund of 40 kilograms. The government said the increase was meant to help farmers absorb higher fuel, input and production costs, encourage more planting and reduce reliance on wheat imports, which Pakistan has resorted to in the past two years. Shehbaz thanked Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif and Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah for their input.
The new rate goes much of the way towards farmers’ demands. The Pakistan Kissan Ittehad had asked in August for Rs4,702 per maund, based on an estimated production cost of Rs3,761 plus a 25% margin, and warned of a possible shortfall of about 3 million tonnes without a viable price.
The timing matters. Wheat sowing is under way across Punjab, and the price signal arrives just as farmers decide how much land to plant. The Kisan League has separately urged growers to base fertiliser use on soil tests as urea and DAP costs bite.
Price versus purchase
The league’s central point is the gap between announcing a price and guaranteeing it. Since 2024-25, under commitments to the International Monetary Fund, the federal government has moved away from official wheat procurement and support prices, aiming to leave trade to the market and keep only emergency strategic reserves. The government described the Rs4,500 figure as a proposed price; it did not say whether federal or provincial food departments would buy wheat at that rate.
Farmers say the shift has cost them dearly. When procurement stopped, open-market prices at harvest fell well below production costs in some areas, and the Pakistan Kissan Ittehad estimates farmers lost about Rs2.2 trillion over three years as wheat prices fell. Many reduced their wheat acreage or left land fallow, and farmer groups staged protests in Punjab this summer.
From glut to shortage
The cycle has since swung the other way. Wheat production rose 4.3% to about 29.6 million tonnes in the 2026 crop, official data show, yet flour prices climbed sharply through the autumn. Open-market wheat averaged about Rs5,437 per maund in early October, and Mahmood said flour had exceeded Rs6,500 per maund this year. A 20kg flour bag averaged about Rs2,850 nationally in early October.
Mahmood warned that Pakistan could face serious food shortages in the coming months and that adequate government reserves were needed to keep flour affordable. Leaving large stocks in the hands of private investors, he said, raises the risk of hoarding and profiteering.
In Lahore, the effects are visible in daily budgets and in policy. Punjab approved a Rs10 billion flour subsidy this month, the food department says half of the province’s flour is now subsidised, and this newspaper found that official supply figures do not add up. On Thursday, the provincial government also banned the sale of 20kg flour bags, allowing only 10kg packs, and ordered wheat to be sown on all state land and on land granted under several provincial schemes.
The policy tension
The league’s call for a national procurement plan puts it at odds with the direction of Pakistan’s economic programme. The IMF has pressed Islamabad to avoid costly market interventions and subsidies, most recently in the staff-level agreement reached this month. Supporters of deregulation argue that government buying distorts markets and builds up debt in provincial food departments; farmers and consumer advocates counter that without a buyer of last resort, prices swing from farm-gate losses at harvest to consumer shortages months later.
Punjab has signalled it wants a middle path, focusing on productivity and value addition. Its Rs1.995 trillion industrial and export programme includes wheat value-chain support, and the provincial government has a large stake in keeping the price of the daily roti in check.
The proposed price must still be formalised, and the federal and provincial governments have yet to say whether, how much and at what price they will buy when the crop arrives in April and May 2027. Mahmood urged a coordinated plan that ensures fair returns for farmers, protects national reserves and shields consumers from unnecessary flour price increases.
With food insecurity already rising, the answer will shape both farmers’ planting decisions this month and the cost of flour in Lahore’s shops next year.
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