There is tension building up again on India-Pakistan borders, which is very unfortunate indeed. Ideally, India and Pakistan, both poor countries, should be cooperating with each other, and living together in peace, not seeing the other as adversary, and devote the scarce resources for improving living conditions for the people instead of wasting these in making wars and preparing for yet others. But that is not to be, which reflects on the quality of their leadership.
And whatever cordiality exists between the two peoples, credit for that rests solely with them, civil society and the media. They have consistently expressed a desire to live together in peace and Aman-ki-Asha and similar initiatives are a proof of that.
I remember during migration of people on both sides of the border around partition time, there were massacres for which blame lay with people both in India and Pakistan. However, early on in Pakistan’s life, when Wagah border was temporarily opened, and restrictions on travel eased to allow Indians to visit Lahore to see the cricket matches, people in Lahore welcomed Hindus and Sikhs with open arms, even establishing camps to offer them hospitality. Also, Karachi people who visited Delhi, Bombay and other cities of India, say they didn’t see much difference and felt as if they were just in Karachi except that auto-rickshaws in India were decided far more comfortable than those in Pakistan. Obviously, India and Pakistan were part of one big country, and customs and traditions are pretty similar.
If we analyse the present round of hostilities, the inevitable conclusion is that India is to blame, which is why it is refusing investigation by United Nations Military Observers Group. We also note that while highest Pakistani authorities have refrained from making hostile statements, in India, from the foot-soldier, right up to their commanders-in-chief, the ministers and even their President are busy enflaming passions. Even their Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has come up with the statement that it will no longer be business as usual with Pakistan and he has already put these threats into practice. The on-arrival visa service for senior citizens, part of the visa liberalizing regime, which was inaugurated only recently, has been suspended, and so have the talk on Wullar Barrage, which had reached an awkward point for India. And all that happening at a time when things had just started looking good. It sounds far more illogical when we consider that Indian trade with Pakistan and beyond was increasing, to the benefit of both.
And this odd Indian behaviour can’t simply be put down to vote-catching exercise just before the elections. And it won’t be too far-fetched to assume that perhaps it is a deliberate attempt by India to avoid discussions on serious issues on which no progress has been made so far. Unwilling to soften up and adopt a reconciliatory approach, India has devised this on-off strategy: on:to gain some benefits and then off: to avoid having to negotiate on issues like Sir Creek, Siachin, water dispute, etc, creating a smoke-screen, behind which it could proceed and complete its illegal building of dams.
So, if we analyse the situation in a cool and calculated manner, we are bound to arrive at conclusions which would be very uncomfortable and disturbing. We see that civilian and military leadership in Pakistan has accepted as a fact that it can not solve Indian-held Kashmir problem by force, and even if it made a dash and snatched some territory in Indian-held Kashmir, it can not retain its hold there and in counter-attack by Indians, it could even lose some of its prime territory. Not being in a position to match India due to its superiority in conventional arms, as well as in the number of soldiers in army, navy and air force, the best that it hopes for is to build up deterrent force in order to discourage India from starting some sort of misadventure and it is here that our nuclear assets come handy: So, having realized that at best, it has a capacity only to defend the territory, Pakistani leaders no longer think of any misadventure with India, like those undertaken by Ayub Khan or Pervez Musharraf. Pakistan has even dropped the idea of acquiring strategic depth in Afghanistan and would be more than satisfied if it does not have to face active hostility from Afghanistan side.
Unfortunately, the position of India is much different. Having separated our eastern wing, for which our own leaders unfortunately bear the prime responsibility, and through which event Indira Gandhi claimed to have avenged one thousand years of Muslim domination in the region, India is now looking forward to becoming an undisputed champion in the region, and has ambitions even to eclipse China, for which it is cooperating closely with the United States. America’s poodle, Britain, is also on the Indian circuit and it did conduct high-altitude military exercises with India.
We also know that Israel, a darling of America and Europe, has declared Pakistan to be an even greater threat than Iran and there is a great degree of collaboration between Indian and Israeli defence forces.
After Iraq and Syria, the whole crusaders’ brigade, plus Israel, are now after Iran and nuclear-armed Pakistan and here India sees a great opportunity, to solve ‘Pakistani problem’ once for all, with the help of the international gang.
We know India is making heavy defence purchases, and is building up its forces in a big way, which obviously is not merely for defence against Pakistan. Also, in its brief war with China, India suffered badly and China could have occupied Indian territory, but did not which proves that China poses no threat to Indian territorial integrity. So, the Indian build up is obviously against Pakistan and later, against China.
We also know that saboteurs from India and other countries are busy creating problems in our tribal areas as well as in Balochistan, and their involvement in Karachi killings also can not be entirely ruled out. So, if India sees a possibility of breaking up Pakistan further, turning it into small, insignificant states, which would pose no threat and no challenge to it, and in which mission it will also have active help from the crusaders’ brigade plus their illegitimate child, Israel, just why would India be interested in seeing a stable, flourishing Pakistan?
I think it is time for our leaders to finally accept that while we can have a ceasefire, and some improvement in trade and other relations with it, normal, good-neighbourly relations with India are out of question, at least while the present crop of small-minded Indian leaders, guided by sentiments like revenge, domination, etc, remains on the Indian political landscape. Any significant improvement in our relations with India is dependent on significant improvement in Indian leaders’ outlook, and that can take quite a while to happen, provided it happens at all.
And in the meantime, our best bet would be develop closer collaboration with our neighbours China, Afghanistan, Iran and of course Russia. We also have to concentrate a lot on, and improve the situation within the country, which is getting uglier with each passing day, and will be a great help to our enemies in implementing their anti-Pakistan agenda.
However, the situation is not altogether hopeless and provided we play our cards well, we can overcome the handicaps, but we do not have all the time in the world to do that. We can make or break Pakistan, depending on what sort of government we bring to power next. So, it is vital for us to take keen interest in the process leading up to the elections, and cast our votes carefully and honestly. I am quite optimistic because working on the theory that people will act sensibly after they have exhausted all other options, I have reason to believe that we have no choice left but to act sensibly, having indeed used up all other options in the last sixty five years.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Lahore Times.