ISLAMABAD:Pakistan’s power sector is facing mounting pressure as the Gulf conflict disrupts global gas and oil supplies, with only two liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes confirmed for September even as demand is expected to rise through the winter months.
International reporting on Thursday said Pakistan was experiencing a milder version of the energy shock hitting parts of South Asia, while the government moves quickly to shield households from soaring transport fuel prices.
Data from the Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) shows the power sector will require up to 400 million cubic feet of gas a day through winter, Reuters reported, with just two LNG cargoes locked in for September.
A standard Pakistani LNG cargo of about 140,000 cubic metres is equivalent to roughly 3 billion cubic feet of gas, which covers just over one week of supply.
Officials are working to prevent a repeat of the early business closures that had to be enforced in April. The federal government has now issued a sweeping austerity notification that cuts official fuel use by half and fixes closing times for markets.
The rapid expansion of rooftop and commercial solar has cushioned Pakistan against part of the power crunch in recent years. However, Masood Nabi, chief executive of state importer Pakistan LNG, told the Gastech conference this week that the country still relies on gas for households and other sectors.
That dependence matters as winter approaches, when residential gas demand typically peaks, especially in northern Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The pressure stems from disruptions at two maritime chokepoints. US and Israeli strikes on Iran more than six months ago disrupted oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz, while fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis now threatens trade through the Red Sea.
As a result, Asian spot LNG prices have climbed back towards $30 per million British thermal units this week, the second such spike this year, compared with around $10 before the war. Shell estimates the world has lost about 36 million tonnes of Middle Eastern LNG supply so far this year, with the shortage hitting hardest in countries with limited fiscal room.
While Pakistan is under strain, its situation compares favourably with parts of the region. In Bangladesh, which relies on imported LNG for more than 40 percent of its electricity, the shortfall has triggered blackouts, factory shutdowns and cancelled export orders.
Pakistan’s diversification into solar and its policy response so far have helped avoid shocks of that scale. Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik has said petrol stocks are secured for September and October, with planning under way for November.
The most pressing challenge for Pakistani households remains transport fuel. The Prime Minister’s Fuel Relief Scheme, which took effect nationwide on Wednesday night, offers motorcycle, rickshaw and small-car owners a subsidy of Rs100 per litre on a capped monthly quota, after petrol rose to roughly Rs380 and diesel to Rs409 per litre, according to Reuters.
Business leaders and daily-wage workers interviewed in Karachi said the relief was not enough, with rickshaw drivers describing cutbacks on basic food as fuel costs eroded their earnings.
Securing additional LNG cargoes before winter, managing circular debt pressures and keeping subsidies targeted will be key tests for Islamabad in the coming months. Any durable easing in the Gulf, which Washington has hinted may be approaching, could bring relief to import-dependent economies such as Pakistan.
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